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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still